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Let us skip the discussion if debates really matter for a moment and focus instead on who won the debate.

The first point is that, just as regular people, columnists saw the debate through their partisan eyes. In general, Republicans found McCain to be brilliant and Democrats agreed that Obama won the debate handily. Below are a few news headlines [from Real Clear Politics]:

McCain Wins Substantive Debate - David Yepsen, Des Moines Register
Obama Wins Debate On Tactics and Strategies - Joe Klein, Time
The Mac is Back - Roger Simon, The Politco
Tie Goes to Obama - John Dickerson, Slate
McCain Won, But That’s Not Enough - Fred Barnes Weekly Standard

The second and probably more interesting point is that Obama did better among Republicans than McCain did among Democrats.  Polling conducted in California by SurveyUSA shows that of Republicans, 56 percent thought that McCain won, 25 percent said Obama and 19 percent considered it a tie. As for Democrats, 72 percent said that Obama won, 13 percent thought McCain got it and 15 said that it was a tie. In other words, Obama did better than McCain because 1 in 4 of the Republicans answered that Obama won whereas 1 in 8 of the Democrats thought that McCain won.

Finally, also the group of uncommitted voters saw Obama as the winner. CBS asked a nationally representative sample “Who won the debate?” and 39 percent of them said that Obama won while 24 percent said McCain. 37 percent concluded that it was a tie.

written by Jacob \\ tags: McCain, Obama, politics, polls

Soon Obama and McCain will pick their running mates. Speculation has been going on for a long time. Here is Huffington Post’s latest take on the subject:

According to the latest speculation, Barack Obama’s VP short list has tightened to two Senators and one governor — Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, and Tim Kaine. But several other figures have been considered, and may still be in the running, including Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Sens. Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton. Also considered long-shots are GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, Texas Rep. Chet Edwards, and Sen. Jack Reed.

Obama is leading the race over McCain both according to political gambling sites and the polls. Does this make any difference in who they will pick?

Research on risk perceptions indicates that when issues are framed in a positive light, like when a win is plausible, then people are more risk averse than if issues are framed in terms of losses, like a loss is impending (see for example Tversky and Kahneman’s research). That is, people who are in tight situations go for the long shots whereas those in favorable positions take the safe choice.

If risk research is any guide to the choices of running mates, McCain probably picks a riskier candidate, someone who can change the outcome of the race, while Obama goes for the safer alternative. It is therefore more likely that Obama will pick Biden rather than someone like Mike Bloomberg. (This does of course not mean that McCain will introduce Rush Limbaugh as his running mate since there are limits to these effects.)

written by Jacob \\ tags: McCain, Obama, politics

The results from the Florida primary show that McCain won, Romney finished second and Giuliani came in third.

Here is some speculation: 1) McCain will win the Republican nomination 2) the campaign will turn especially ugly in this upcoming week between Romney and McCain 3) McCain will choose Huckabee as his running mate. McCain probably needs a socially conservative on the ticket and Huckabee seems to be his best choice.

As discussed in the last post, this was Giuliani’s last hope. Unfortunately for him, the polls were correct this time. NBC is reporting that he will drop out of the race and endorse McCain tomorrow.

Another interesting development is how John King at CNN has turned from being like a grandma in front of a VCR (hey, that is sexism and ageism at the same time and should not be joked about) to acting like Tom Cruise’s character in Minority Report. He is using the big touch screen to move around panels and pointing at counties like he has done it his whole life.

written by Jacob \\ tags: McCain, politics, primaries

Some high-profile endorsements are coming out these days.

I have discussed that Chuck Norris prefers Huckabee before. Now another action guy is coming out of the closet. Stallone endorses McCain! There is a pretty funny video here. Stallone says that he “like[s] McCain a lot. A lot.” Stallone almost goes over the top with his praise, just as Norris has done with his praise of Huckabee. I guess moderation is not their strongest suit.

New York Times is also endorsing McCain. The most interesting part of their editorial is how bluntly they dismiss the Republican candidates.

written by Jacob \\ tags: McCain, politics