Soon Obama and McCain will pick their running mates. Speculation has been going on for a long time. Here is Huffington Post’s latest take on the subject:
According to the latest speculation, Barack Obama’s VP short list has tightened to two Senators and one governor — Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, and Tim Kaine. But several other figures have been considered, and may still be in the running, including Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Sens. Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton. Also considered long-shots are GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, Texas Rep. Chet Edwards, and Sen. Jack Reed.
Obama is leading the race over McCain both according to political gambling sites and the polls. Does this make any difference in who they will pick?
Research on risk perceptions indicates that when issues are framed in a positive light, like when a win is plausible, then people are more risk averse than if issues are framed in terms of losses, like a loss is impending (see for example Tversky and Kahneman’s research). That is, people who are in tight situations go for the long shots whereas those in favorable positions take the safe choice.
If risk research is any guide to the choices of running mates, McCain probably picks a riskier candidate, someone who can change the outcome of the race, while Obama goes for the safer alternative. It is therefore more likely that Obama will pick Biden rather than someone like Mike Bloomberg. (This does of course not mean that McCain will introduce Rush Limbaugh as his running mate since there are limits to these effects.)
August 21st, 2008 at 4:32 am
My friend Ida had a flirt with Obama in Berlin.
Please, http://www.flickr.com/photos/illegali/2700667623/
August 21st, 2008 at 8:59 am
Wow! I liked how she captured his facial features.
Some people criticize Obama for being just like on the picture. They say he is deliberately vague so that people can project their own hopes. I am not sure about that though. Many of his policy suggestions are described in detail on his website.
August 24th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Re your last sentence: Too bad; McCain-Limbaugh has a nice ring of likely defeat to it.
August 26th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Perhaps. I do think it would make the election campaign a lot more interesting than if he picks Romney.