Before the New Hampshire primary the polls predicted a clear victory for Obama. That did not happen. It was a massive failure for pollsters.
In South Carolina pollsters predicted that Obama would win a small victory. Instead he won with a landslide. He got more votes than Hillary Clinton and John Edwards combined. The South Carolina polling fiasco was in fact bigger than the “huge” polling mistake in New Hampshire. Polls missed the support for Obama by 15-30 percentage points.
On the Republican side, polling has been somewhat better in predicting the actual vote, but there have been substantial mistakes also in those primaries and caucuses. Especially in Nevada did polls underestimate the win by Romney.
Tomorrow it is time for the primary in Florida. We will finally see if Rudy Giuliani’s daring strategy will work. He has put all his efforts into the Florida campaign and anything but a victory will probably mean that he is out of the race. That is at least what the commentators are saying. Of course, they are just speculating, but I think they might have a point here.
It is hard not to sympathize with Giuliani and to root just a little bit for him. Please, do not freak out now. I also think that he has shamelessly exploited 9/11 and has taken too much credit for turning New York City around. Nonetheless, he was the front-runner for a long time. Only recently has his campaign imploded, in a way that bears resemblance of how Howard Dean’s campaign failed miserably in 2004.
Giuliani’s campaign strategy is so crazy and unprecedented that it probably should be rewarded for originality. I have to think about the proper prize. Everything has gone according to his plans. Almost every primary and caucus on the Republican side have had different winners. There is no clear front runner (although McCain comes close). The only downside (and it is a major one) is that he has slipped in the polls, even in Florida. Giuliani’s support has gone from around 30 percent to 15 percent according to the latest polls. Now he is behind both McCain and Romney.
Will Giuliani’s strategy work? Probably not according to the polls. However, they have often been horribly wrong this primary season. Can they be trusted this time? If Giuliani wins tomorrow it will be the biggest failure by pollsters so far.
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