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Race is not a new topic in this blog, but it is so important that I want to continue posting about it. Look at these figures (quote from New York Times):

About half of black Democratic primary voters — 49 percent — said they planned to vote for Mr. Obama, while 34 percent said they backed Mrs. Clinton. Among white Democratic primary voters, 42 percent said they were supporting Mrs. Clinton, while 24 percent said they backed Mr. Obama.

The message is clear. It means, if we generalize, that blacks prefer Obama whereas whites prefer Clinton. This seems to me as yet another example of how blatantly important race is in America. We see a huge gap that probably depends on race. Obviously, income and other factors are not controlled for and they might drive some of this effect, but I doubt that they can explain everything.

By the way, it would have been interesting if NY Times also had looked at gender. I will get back to this topic in future posts.

Then New York Times continues in this incredibly naive way:

On the question of whether the country was ready for a black president, black voters were more skeptical than whites; 47 percent of blacks said the country was prepared to send a black person to the White House, while 56 percent of whites said they felt that way. A majority of whites and blacks, and men and women, considered the country ready for a woman president.

Does NY Times really think that whites will tell pollsters that they do not think blacks are ready to lead the country? Why not also ask them if they think Mein Kampf is a good book? Sure, some people are still openly racist, but many people are cautious not to be labeled as racists because of the stigma related to it. There are better ways to ask such loaded questions. Anyone interested might want to look at Paul Sniderman’s work and list experiments (an accessible article is here).

written by Jacob \\ tags: Hillary Clinton, Obama, politics, polls, primaries, race

Today is Tjugondedag Jul (St. Knut’s Day). Christmas is therefore officially over.

My Swedish farmer’s almanac with weather predictions says that if the weather has been cold from Christmas to today, then the cold will last the whole winter. The temperature was above 60 F/16 C a few days ago. Clearly, the cold weather will not last. Great news!

written by Jacob \\ tags: weather

Hulk Hogan, Sylvester Stallone and Chuck Norris, they are all back. What to make of it? New York Times explains this in terms of a lost sense of American security, and personality factors.

First the situational factor, the lost sense of security. NYT uses a few juicy quotes from media people. For example, “‘We have weak, uncertain political leadership right now’, ‘Everything seems to be up for grabs; we don’t believe in institutions. This country needs stability, and in an archetypal, hyperbolic way, that’s what these figures represent’ and “Anxious Americans, after all, are suddenly very unsure of their position in the world, which leaves some open to any ‘fantasy having to do with a sense of traditional masculinity.’”

But where is the evidence? Are Americans really more insecure today than, say, in 2002? In frightening times we usually see people rallying around actual political leaders rather than fantasy figures like Walker, Texas Ranger. The rally ’round the flag-effect has never, to my knowledge, involved actors.

Did really people bother to pay attention to Chuck Norris and Sylvester Stallone around September 11 or at the beginning of the Iraq war? (I am ambivalent towards rhetorical questions, but that was one.) It would have been great if New York Times had presented a time-line showing that right now there is an unusual urge for stability. Besides, lack of trust in institutions is nothing new, it has been around since the 1970s.

I think the personality factor is more interesting. New York Times writes: “But Mr. Koops, speaking on Tuesday, New Hampshire primary day, said the appetite for these action figures represents more than a joke. Rather, it speaks to a sincere desire among some men — likely not Hillary Clinton supporters — to return to what he called ‘a comfort zone’ symbolized by heroic characters of yore.” In other words, New York Times are saying that fearful, conservative men are pushing this potential trend. I would like to see an empirical study on that.

Finally, just thinking in probabilistic terms, are there more action heroes in the limelight now than you would expect by chance? Some are back and some are not. (Steven Seagal anyone?)

written by Jacob \\ tags: movies, newspapers, statistics