JS

I do not grow tired of them.

—

Looking ’round the room
I can tell that you
Are the most beautiful girl
In the room.
In the whole wide room
And when you’re on the street
Depending on the street
I bet that you are definitely
In the top three
Good looking girls on the street…

…’Cause you’re so beautiful
Like a tree
Or a high-class prostitute
You’re so beautiful
You could be a part-time model
But you’d probably still have to keep your normal job
 

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmDTSQtK20c[/youtube]

written by Jacob \\ tags: music

I wonder if this link between Facebook and WordPress will work. If it fails to work I will just delete the Facebook application. I like these things that make connections between sites. It is easy for huge companies like Google or Microsoft to link all their applications together because they got their own universes of applications. It must be harder for smaller companies to get the same benefits.

Update: Yes, it works, but it looks so damn ugly. I am removing the Facebook application.

written by Jacob \\ tags: social networks

There are many forecasting models for the general election, and even though they often fail to exactly predict the result, the best ones are usually able to predict it within a few percentage points.

As for the primaries, the forecasting models are considerably less fancy. Mayer’s (1996) model* is probably the most common. He states that two factors matter: standing in the polls before Iowa and money contributions. Judging by these two factors then the Democratic nomination would be in the hands of Hillary Clinton. She leads in the poll and has gather slightly more money than Barrack Obama ($90 million compared to $80). The Republican nomination is still wide-open if we only look at the polls, but the money standing would suggest that Romney has the best chances, followed by Giuliani and McCain.

Note that this forecasting model says nothing about cause and effect between these two factors. It is probable that someone that does good in the polls is able to get more money and also that someone that has a lot of money is able to gain in the polls. The forecasting model has also a pretty bad track record in close races. For example, in 2004 Dean led the polls well into January of 2004, but he subsequently was overturned by both Kerry and Edwards.

*Mayer updated his model in 2003 to make it even more parsimonious. Only polls matter according to this updated statement.

written by Jacob \\ tags: forecasting, politics, primaries

This year we will see many medical and technological breakthroughs. Furthermore, the global economy will grow. There will, however, be political scandals, terror attacks and wars. Why? Simply because these things have happened in most previous years. The chances of them happening by random every year are slim, so the safest assumption is that they will occur also this year.

written by Jacob \\ tags: forecasting, statistics