Oct 01
Lee Sigelman at the Monkey Cage posted a great video about the current economic crisis. The brilliance/minutes ratio is high.
Sep 27
Let us skip the discussion if debates really matter for a moment and focus instead on who won the debate.
The first point is that, just as regular people, columnists saw the debate through their partisan eyes. In general, Republicans found McCain to be brilliant and Democrats agreed that Obama won the debate handily. Below are a few news headlines [from Real Clear Politics]:
McCain Wins Substantive Debate - David Yepsen, Des Moines Register
Obama Wins Debate On Tactics and Strategies - Joe Klein, Time
The Mac is Back - Roger Simon, The Politco
Tie Goes to Obama - John Dickerson, Slate
McCain Won, But That’s Not Enough - Fred Barnes Weekly Standard
The second and probably more interesting point is that Obama did better among Republicans than McCain did among Democrats. Polling conducted in California by SurveyUSA shows that of Republicans, 56 percent thought that McCain won, 25 percent said Obama and 19 percent considered it a tie. As for Democrats, 72 percent said that Obama won, 13 percent thought McCain got it and 15 said that it was a tie. In other words, Obama did better than McCain because 1 in 4 of the Republicans answered that Obama won whereas 1 in 8 of the Democrats thought that McCain won.
Finally, also the group of uncommitted voters saw Obama as the winner. CBS asked a nationally representative sample “Who won the debate?” and 39 percent of them said that Obama won while 24 percent said McCain. 37 percent concluded that it was a tie.
Sep 12
I have always thought it was strange to rank American presidents. It seems close to impossible to know how history would have unfolded if, say, Lincoln would have taken George W. Bush’s place or vice versa. Perhaps we would all live in harmony if this switch was made, or perhaps the world would be post-apocalyptic - or perhaps it would not make a difference at all.
Irrespective of how meaningful these rankings are, George Washington often wins. After viewing a video about him (thanks Angie) I think I understand his greatness a little better. In case you missed it, see the video below.
Aug 28
The political strategists were at hard work before Obama’s speech (from NY Times):
On Thursday afternoon, workers were still making changes to Invesco Field, home to the Denver Broncos, so it would feel more intimate, less like the boisterous rallies that served Mr. Obama so well early in the primaries, but also created the celebrity image that dogs him. They were still testing camera angles to the very end, so Mr. Obama would appear among the giant crowd, not above it.
Was it just me, or didn’t they succeed a little too well? I now know exactly how Obama’s mole looks like. Thank you strategists!
Aug 26
Cannibalistic food is strange. But what does it mean that a pink(!) elephant is wearing the GOP symbol? It is all very confusing.
[Food that eats itself from Boing Boing]
Aug 25
This post about how polling organizations influence results is interesting. Great work by Charles H. Franklin on house effects.
Aug 19
Soon Obama and McCain will pick their running mates. Speculation has been going on for a long time. Here is Huffington Post’s latest take on the subject:
According to the latest speculation, Barack Obama’s VP short list has tightened to two Senators and one governor — Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, and Tim Kaine. But several other figures have been considered, and may still be in the running, including Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Sens. Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton. Also considered long-shots are GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, Texas Rep. Chet Edwards, and Sen. Jack Reed.
Obama is leading the race over McCain both according to political gambling sites and the polls. Does this make any difference in who they will pick?
Research on risk perceptions indicates that when issues are framed in a positive light, like when a win is plausible, then people are more risk averse than if issues are framed in terms of losses, like a loss is impending (see for example Tversky and Kahneman’s research). That is, people who are in tight situations go for the long shots whereas those in favorable positions take the safe choice.
If risk research is any guide to the choices of running mates, McCain probably picks a riskier candidate, someone who can change the outcome of the race, while Obama goes for the safer alternative. It is therefore more likely that Obama will pick Biden rather than someone like Mike Bloomberg. (This does of course not mean that McCain will introduce Rush Limbaugh as his running mate since there are limits to these effects.)
Jul 16
You are at a party. After discussing the sluggish economy, Obama’s prospects, security versus civil liberties and so on for some time, a trick might be in order - just to mix things up a bit. The problem is that party tricks are often so boring. Or you come across as Criss Angel’s failed cousin (even the original is annoying). Instead, try this combination of cornstarch, water, a subwoofer and a metal sheet (see video below):
Jul 15
The county administrative board of Dalarna (Länsstyrelsen i Dalarna) has made Kris Kristofferson “Ambassador of Honour of Dalarna“. I am not sure if this will have any effects beyond short-term publicity, but I like this initiative anyway. The award is given to someone with a strong connection to Dalarna, which Kristofferson apparently has this through his ancestors. In return, the administrative board expects him to spread “the many values” of the county to a wider audience. This fuzzy language could mean pretty much anything.
It is hard not to like the versatile Kristofferson. He will accept the award at a concert in Dalhalla, July 28.
According to IMDB, he has uttered words of wisdom like: “Never go to bed with anyone crazier than yourself.”
Jun 13
It is easy to write long rants about the stupidity of American television news. Not now, though. My favorite political reporter died today. In fact, Meet the Press has been the only political news program that I could watch without getting annoyed. Tim Russert’s interviews were incisive and civil. He also had an amazing depth of knowledge and a fantastic ability to tell a story. Time ranked him recently as one of the world’s 100 most influential people.
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